Daily Market Comment

02.07.2009

While off yesterday’s best levels at $1.42, the euro has started the day trading above $1.41 versus the dollar following positive moves in stocks on the back of some better than expected US data. At the same time though, upside is seen as limited, with markets on edge ahead of this afternoon’s release of the all important US non-farm payrolls reports for June, which is out a day early this month due to the Independence Day holiday. Yesterday’s ADP employment report came in much weaker than expected, causing many in the marketplace to revise upwards their expectations for the number of job losses in the official report.

Weekly Market Brief

26.06.2009 Weekly Market Brief - 26 June

Key data releases and market events for 29th June - 3rd July

Exchange Rate Monthly

18.06.2009 Exchange Rate Monthly - June 2009

Stock market activity and investor appetite for risk continue to be the main driving forces in terms of forex flows and against this background the US dollar remains volatile versus other majors. Although off recent lows versus the euro, downside risks remain, reflecting the general pick up in global risk appetite as investors focus on the increasing evidence from leading indicators of “green shoots of recovery”.

Central Bank Watch

02.07.2009 ECB Watch July 2009

As expected, the European Central Bank left its refi rate unchanged at 1% today. At his post meeting press conference, Mr Trichet again indicated that the ECB had not decided that rates could not go any lower. However, he also again said that rates are at an appropriate level. A a further cut in interest rates seems unlikely, certainly in the near term. Indeed, the ECB is switching its focus to other measures to further expand monetary policy. The weak economic outlook very much supports the case, though, for rates to stay at very low levels for a prolonged period of time.