Daily Market Comment

29.07.2010

While movements amongst the majors yesterday and overnight have been relatively modest, sentiment remains against the dollar. Yesterday’s economic data, the tone of the Fed Beige Book and news that Governor Schwarzenegger has declared a state of emergency over California’s finances were all dollar negative. However, despite the negative dollar sentiment, the euro has been locked in a tight range against the US currency. It is starting today, though with a stronger tone, again targeting the $1.3050 resistance level in early morning trade. Weak risk sentiment, with stocks trading lower, meanwhile, has helped pull the yen somewhat higher against the dollar. Sterling sentiment, meanwhile, remains robust after recent strong UK economic data and yesterday saw it hit a fresh 5 month high to the dollar. Nationwide house price data this morning, though, has confirmed other recent data pointing to a slide in house prices.

Weekly Market Brief

23.07.2010 WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF 23RD JULY 2010

Key Data for Week 26th - 30th July 2010

Economic Reports

21.07.2010 Irish Economic Update July 2010

Q1 2010 Irish National Accounts data released at end June, show that the economy has emerged from a two year long recession, with GDP rising by 2.7% in the quarter as exports surged ahead. However, it is going to be an uneven recovery in 2010 in both pace and breath. Industrial production and external trade figures can be quite volatile and GDP could well have declined in Q2, though it should pick up again in H2 2010. The economy still faces considerable headwinds, with declining construction activity and government spending continuing to weigh on growth. We expect that GDP, after showing 0% growth in 2010, will expand by 2.5% next year as the negative factors weighing on growth start to abate, and exports and consumer spending strengthen. GDP growth of 4-5% is expected thereafter.

Central Bank Watch

23.07.2010 Fed Watch July 2010

There was considerable interest in Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke's, testimony to Congress this week on monetary policy and the state of the economy. He described the economic outlook as “unusually uncertain” and said that the Fed is ready to take further action to support the economy if needed. With short term rates already close to zero, any further Fed loosening is likely to be aimed at lowering longer term rates via renewed asset purchases and changes to FOMC statements indicating that the Fed will keep official rates low for an even more prolonged period of time.