In the beginning, BREXIT was barely in the news and no one expected it would ever come to pass. Which explains why the former Prime Minister, David Cameron, staked his political career on it. On Tuesday night, Prime Minister Theresa May has invoked the now popular European Law – Article 50. Where does BREXIT leave the British people 9 months after they voted to leave their 44-year relationship with the EU?
PM Theresa May is now saddled with the task of leading the British delegation to hold talks with their EU counterparts. One should not fail to note that there would be the small matter of an election for the PM seat. PM Theresa May says the elections would be necessary. so whoever wins would be in a good position to carry on with BREXIT negotiations. Of course, she stands the best chance to win the seat and no longer be seen as an Acting PM. It is expected that the real talks will begin sometime in May/June and end in the autumn of 2018. Here is where preliminary talks are going thus far.
FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2019
When a member of the European Union (EU) invokes Article 50, which became law in 2009 after the treaty of Lisbon, a 2-year window period is allowed for negotiations. If at the end of that period, no agreement is reached for an extension, the country that seeks to exit the EU automatically exits. In the case of BREXIT, if this happens, then BREXIT Day would be Friday, March 29, 2019.
CAN IT BE REVERSED?
Since the Treaty of Lisbon became law in 2009, no country has asked to exit the union. This explains part of the shock that BREXIT was triggered by the British. What this means is that BREXIT will be the case study as there is no precedence. While the European Council President, Donald Tusk, is keeping the faith that Article 50 can be reversed, PM Theresa May is tough on her stance that there would be no turning back. In theory, it is possible to make a U-turn, but the reality is that politics would not allow it. PM Theresa May is expected to win the next general elections on June 8, 2017, based on her stance on the issue. It seems highly unlikely that she would do a U-turn on an issue that is expected to put her in power.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Once there is no U-turn, BREXIT will come into play by the expiration of the 2-year period or an agreement reached with the EU. Life after BREXIT means that Britain will now be governed by World Trade Organization rules. They can make trade deals with other nations without any recourse to the EU. No one knows what the future would look like for Britain after BREXIT but now that it has been triggered, the ball has started rolling.